Most of our player takes at the draft table are more about price than about player — in theory, there's a good time and a bad time to select almost anyone. Nonetheless, at the end of the day you want your fantasy analysts to provide the list of players they're proactively drafting and proactively avoiding — today, I present a few player fades.
. Take this for what it's worth: A list of players I like less than the market. I didn't want to fill this article with a bunch of middle-round and late-round picks, where's the utility in that?Witt was the No. 32 player in 5x5 value last year, heady stuff for a rookie. But significant improvement is priced into his 2023 ADP. He’s going to be a first-round pick in most NFBC leagues, and I don’t want to write that check.
Witt’s contact stats are strong, but he’ll also swing at just about anything. His OBP was under .300 last year. And the Royals lineup has so many dead spots; there are only four players in the current lineup who feel like good bets to be average or better offensive players. Lineup context and buoyancy matters. You won’t find it here.have almost identical projections from the spreadsheet guys, but Arozarena is available around 30 picks later in a traditional draft.
But Goldschmidt was one of baseball’s luckiest hitters last year. His .317 average was 56 points higher than what Statcast’s batted-ball data suggested, and Goldschmidt also had a slugging percentage that outkicked his Statcast number by 96 points. Throw in an upcoming age-35 season, and I suspect Goldschmidt has a modest regression year and doesn’t earn enough to justify his top 20 Yahoo ADP.Much like the Goldy fade, this one hurts. I'm a lifelong Red Sox fan.
Don’t draft into injured players unless the ADP is a steal; injuries will find you no matter what you do.
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