The Giants face a tough schedule in 2023 and could struggle to repeat last year’s success.
The Giants finished last season with a negative point differential and a negative mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. The Giants had the fifth-highest time of possession while trailing last season. The flip side to this argument is that Daboll and his staff are good enough coaches to consistently exceed expectations by performing in high-leverage situations.
But I find it hard to believe the Giants will re-create last season’s magic, given they didn’t make many roster upgrades and will face a significantly tougher schedule. By Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 2023 Giants will face the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis projects that the Giants will face the toughest set of defenses, including nine games against top-nine pass defenses from last season .
The Giants went 2-7 against teams with a winning record last season, so the projected increase in strength of schedule doesn’t bode well.The Giants play three games on “Monday Night Football,” meaning they’ll play three games on a short week. They also play four games in a five-week stretch where their opponents have over six days of rest. Football Outsiders projects the Giants for 6.4 wins this year, while The Action Network’s Sean Koerner says he projects “a ton” of value on Under 7.
Ultimately, I think we see the Giants regress in a big way in Daboll’s second year as head coach. The Giants will not recreate their close-game and turnover luck, and the schedule is far too difficult to be bullish.
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