The Trump administration's latest COVID-19 projections rely on a model that appears to count on several assumptions — including that all states will issue statewide social distancing rules within a week from now.
President Trump and his top scientific advisors on the coronavirus taskforce gave a much-anticipated presentation Tuesday night, laying out the data behind the president's recent shift in tone regarding the outbreak – including his decision to extend national social distancing guidelines through May 1.released weeks earlier by Imperial College London that, at the time, predicted that if no action were taken to slow the spread of the virus, about 2.
NPR reached out to two researchers who helped put together IHME's model. We learned of four assumptions made by the model that administration officials did not mention.The president's guidelines are not what makes the difference ... IHME's model forecasts the outcome for each state by taking into account not just which measures state officials have imposed, but the date on which officials imposed the measures, and how much transmission was already underway by that point, as measured by the number of COVID-19 deaths.
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