Morgan Stanley sees the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months, as their go-to indicator teeters dangerously towards a key threshold.
This story requires our BI Prime membership. To read the full article,Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, denotes a key market divergence that bolsters a case for a recession over the next 12 months.
Shalett frames her argument around the firm's go-to recession indicator — which backs up her case with hard data.Click here for more BI Prime stories.Lasting for only a few brief moments in time, markets have quickly discredited any adversarial narrative and charged to new all-time highs in the face of tribulation. This seemingly unstoppable momentum has trounced
, geopolitical uncertainty, and a global economic slowdown — leaving those who doubted staring blankly in disbelief.Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, sees the odds of aThe graph below depicts the New York Fed's probability of a recession in the 12 months ahead — a go-to metric for her analysis. She notes that the measure has risen above 30% before every recession since 1960 — and that it sat at a precarious 28% in May.
"With the deterioration in the June data, we think the model's next report will show the economy continued to weaken," Shalett said.
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