In 1905 most commercial vehicles were electric. Yet by the 1920s, they were a dying breed
s. Ads aimed at affluent women touteds were a dying breed. The standard account of their demise is that drivers were put off by their limited range and higher cost, relative to petrol-powered cars. However, a new paper by Josef Taalbi and Hana Nielsen of Lund University argues that their main disadvantage was instead a lack of infrastructure.
The authors consider various causes of petrol’s triumph in 1900-10. Cost is unlikely, since until 1910 petrol-powered cars ands managed a respectable 90 miles by the 1910s. Had this beens’ principal handicap, battery-swapping stations, which replaced depleted batteries with charged ones in seconds, could have become as common as petrol stations did.
To test other explanations, the authors analysed the specifications and production sites of 37,000 model-year pairs of American cars in 1895-1942. Although petrol-powered cars were the most common, their market share varied by location. In places with the infrastructures needed—smooth roads, which reduced jostling of heavy batteries, and ample electricity—production ofs was unusually common. In areas without such capacity, petrol predominated.
The study then used a statistical model to predict how automotive history might have differed if the power grid had developed faster. It finds that if the amount of electricity America produced by 1922 had been available in 1902, 71% of car models in 1920 would have beens . Accounting for the extra power generation such a fleet would need, this would have cut America’s carbon-dioxide emissions from cars in 1920 by 44%.s by drivers worried about long trips.
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