After Ukraine, the United States's antagonists, China chief among them, will have a much better sense of the limits of American power, writes dmarusic. 'Expect a lot more jostling, testing, and brinkmanship in the years to come.'
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” I have seen this quote, attributed to Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, trotted out several times in the past few days. In extraordinary times, cliches take on added weight. Given how resonant the quote feels, we are doubtlessly living through extraordinary times. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is not merely a security crisis in Eastern Europe. It is likely to reorder the world in lasting ways.
The Ukrainian people stand to lose the most from this war. At the time of writing, more than a million have fled the country. And as the war gets more brutal , those numbers are sure to swell. Some estimate that up to 7 million people are likely to be displaced, but that, too, could be exceeded if the Russians choose to escalate. Ukrainians have the right to visa-free travel within the European Union for up to 90 days.
Putin’s political endgame in Ukraine is difficult to discern. He might eventually be able to suborn the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv or its second city, Kharkiv, though it no longer seems likely he will be able to do so quickly. Russia may be able to secure a land bridge to occupied Crimea, linking it up with expanded holdings in Luhansk and Donetsk in the east of the country.
And China? So far, Beijing is standing back and watching. It has not openly backed Moscow, but neither is it rushing to condemn its aggression. Its abstention on an angry resolution at the United Nations is symbolic of its larger approach. Russia’s early troubles in conquering Ukraine are carefully being studied for any lessons that could apply to Taiwan. Moscow is invading its neighbor from three sides.
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