While investors, business leaders and some economic models continue to warn a recession is imminent, Wall Street’s most powerful investment bank remains cautiously optimistic
. Goldman Sachs told clients on Monday it still sees a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months. While that is double the normal risk of a recession, it is far below the 63% average in a recent forecaster survey by The Wall Street Journal. “We still see a very plausible non-recessionary four-step path from the high-inflation economy of the present to a low-inflation economy of the future,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report.
But Goldman Sachs pointed out the transition to more sustainable — but still positive — economic growth “has already occurred, and it looks durable.” The bank expects gross domestic product growth of about 1% over the next year. Despite Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, Goldman Sachs says the rebalancing of the job market “looks to be on track.” And the bank is impressed by the fact that wages have cooled off, though they remain high.
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