Global recession risks are on the rise and we could see a 'really sharp correction' within the next 18 months, according to Ian Harnett, chief investment strategist at Absolute Strategy Research.
"You've got the Shiller P/E back over 30 times, last seen in the tech bubble, last seen just prior to the 1930s depression," he explained. The Shiller P/E is a valuation measure usually applied to the U.S. S&P 500 equity market. He also pointed toward the trailing P/E in the U.S. market, a valuation based on the last 12 months of actual earnings, sitting at "22 times, higher than it got at its highest level in the 1960s.
"And I mean really large, because we are looking at these recession risk models rising, credit impulse numbers in the states are weak, that tends to bring unemployment up and tends to bring equity markets down."
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