Hundreds of small tremors have shaken a densely populated volcanic area west of the Italian city of Naples in recent weeks, pushing the government to quickly redraft mass evacuation plans, even though experts don’t see an imminent risk of eruption
In the latest of a long string of tremors, a 4.0-magnitude earthquake hit the region of Campi Flegrei Monday. The region is home to a caldera, a cauldron-shaped depression left behind by the eruption of a very large volcano.
In a study published in June, a team of scientists at INGV raised the possibility that the caldera’s movements could rupture its crust. However, the study stressed there are currently no concrete reasons to anticipate a traditional volcanic eruption involving lava outflow. The Campi Flegrei area extends west from the outskirts of Naples to the Tyrrhenian Sea. About a third is partially submerged beneath the Bay of Pozzuoli, while the remaining two-thirds are home to about 400,000 people.
Experts have advised Naples city council to conduct safety checks on hospitals, schools and public buildings. But, in a 2022 study published by the National Research Council , a group of economists estimated that an immediate evacuation of the whole Campi Flegrei area – as described by the emergency plans -- would cost about 30 billion euros a year, with a negative impact on Italy’s gross domestic product of around 1%.
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