A tumultuous week for Boris Johnson suggests an election is on the cards

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A tumultuous week for Boris Johnson suggests an election is on the cards
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With Boris Johnson's majority shot, an election is on the horizon. Can he win it?

s to Westminster this week could hardly have been more dramatic. Boris Johnson started on September 3rd with a working majority of one and a policy of leaving the European Union at the end of October no matter what. By day’s end he had lost a first Commons vote against his Brexit plans by the surprisingly large margin of 27.

Mr Johnson responded to his defeat with characteristic belligerence. Although he conceded that he was bound to observe the law, he also said there were no circumstances in which he would ask for an extension of the October 31st deadline. The solution, he suggested, was to hold an election before then, to let the people decide who should be negotiating with theHis problem is that, under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011, prime ministers can no longer call an election when they want.

Here Mr Johnson is bullish. The latest polls give the Tories a ten-point lead over Labour. Yet elections go wrong, as Mrs May found when squandering an even bigger lead in 2017. Without a pact with Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which may be hard to agree, it could take Tory votes. The Tories may lose seats in Scotland, London and the south. To win a majority, they must make big gains in the midlands and north. These regions have many pro-Brexit voters, but they are by instinct anti-Tory.

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