A new study adds to the growing body of evidence that the pandemic's true toll is far greater than official tallies show.
Scientists are skeptical of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s new way of counting COVID-19 cases and their claim that the pandemic’s toll is twice as bad as we thought.
The number of deaths may help researchers work backward to total infections, but they happen weeks after infections take place and don’t offer much real-time insight. There is one potentially unbiased source: representative prevalence surveys in which a random group of people are selected for coronavirus testing.
Irons and his colleagues looked at data from two random testing surveys conducted in Indiana and Ohio and used those numbers to calibrate a model they built using less-perfect data sources: deaths, number of confirmed cases, and number of tests performed.The researchers found that, by early March, only 1 out of every 2.3 infections in the U.S. had been confirmed via testing — meaning that well over half of coronavirus infections in the country have gone unreported. They determined that about 19.
“This suggests that the United States was far from reaching herd immunity and that it was unlikely to do so from infections alone in the short term while state and local governments continued to implement lockdowns and other mitigations,” the study authors wrote.
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