After the yield curve inverts, stocks typically have another year and a half before doom hits.
The fearsome inversion of the key 2-year and 10-year yields finally happened early Wednesday, sending markets reeling.
Strategists first started publishing research on yield-curve data last summer, when a rise in short-term rates narrowed the spread between the 3-month bill rate and 10-year yield to levels not seen since the financial crisis. That part of the curve eventually inverted, but stocks continued to hit new highs.occurred early Wednesday
Stocks typically have 18 months of gains following inversion of the 2-10 spread until returns start to turn negative, Credit Suisse data showed. Echoing Golub's analysis, Bank of America Merrill Lynch cautioned on Monday that the "S&P 500 [is] on borrowed time if the 2s10s yield curve inverts."
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