The perfect bracket to win your March Madness pool
The Perfect Bracket By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog Email Bio Follow March 18 at 10:23 AM If you want a sure thing in your men’s NCAA tournament pool, you’ll need to fill out the 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 brackets necessary to guarantee a winner. Just leave yourself plenty of time to finish them all: if you filled out one bracket every second it would take you 292 billion years to cover all the possibilities.
Duke is the obvious favorite here. The ACC champion Blue Devils are the third-best team in the country per Pomeroy’s rankings with quality wins over Kentucky and Virginia. Their only two losses, with Zion Williamson in the lineup, are to Gonzaga and Syracuse. North Carolina will face stiff competition from No. 2 Kentucky. PJ Washington and Tyler Herro have fueled Kentucky’s rise to the top. Washington is averaging a team-high 14.8 points and 7.6 rebounds per game while shooting 42 percent from beyond the arc and Herro is averaging 14.2 points per game with a three-point success rate of 37 percent. The three-point percentages for both players are a key factor in Kentucky’s wins this season: according to Taylor Combs of kentuckysportsradio.
No. 5 Wisconsin could also surprise. The Badgers had a rough start to 2019 — Wisconsin lost three of the first four games of the new year — but have righted the ship and enter the tournament with the 12th best adjusted net efficiency . Coach Greg Gard sees his squad take care of the ball , play stout defense around the rim and against ballhandlers on the pick and roll , the most frequent play against them this season.
The Seminoles’ depth is formidable. The team’s reserves play more than a third of the game with 6-foot-10 sophomore center Mfiondu Kabengele leading the team in points scored per 100 possessions despite not starting a game this season. On paper, No. 1 Virginia has the best chance to make the Final Four, appearing 52 percent of the time as the representative of the South region. No. 1 Duke and No. 1 Gonzaga are next, followed by No. 1 North Carolina and No. 2 Michigan State . However, we are looking for value, not necessarily chalk, which is why Michigan State is an intriguing pick: No.
The qualifying conferences this year include the Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Southeastern and Big East, indicating Duke , Virginia , and Michigan State are the best bets to become this year’s national champion. You could add North Carolina to the list since they are only a few decimal points shy of Michigan State for the fourth-highest SRS of 2018-19.
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