Analysis: Central Asian countries now have two big worries about Russia
To be sure, Central Asian countries understand the risks of dependence on Russia. They experienced a huge blow from 2014 sanctions. When the global economy came to a halt during thepandemic, migrant laborers in Russia headed home. In response, leaders looked to diversify from dependence on migration and remittances. But as economies in the region bounced back, labor migrants headed right back to Russia.
Last week, Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev said, “As the world becomes more dangerous by the hour … we must work to strengthen our economy, our defense, and with confidence raise the power of our motherland.” This was a hint, no doubt, about the need to bolster his country’s economic strength and independence from foreign powers.
But calls for diversification won’t shield Central Asia from the effects of Western sanctions on Russia. Governments in the region will face enormous pressure from inflation and unemployment — and social unrest may follow. Russia’s military adventures in Ukraine are likely to have destabilizing consequences in this region for years to come.
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