Analysis: Bryce Harper isn’t worth $300 million in this market
Washington Nationals' Bryce Harper stretches in the dugout last season.
By this method, Machado’s value in 2019 is expected to be worth 4.5 wins above replacement which, in turn, puts his 10-year value at 34.2 fWAR per WARcels. Using the cost and inflation method above pegs that at a $308 million price tag for the next 10 years. That’s pretty close to the 10-year, $300 million contract he signed with the Padres last week.
Projected and actual contracts for Manny Machado and Nelson Arenado That brings us to Harper. His contribution in 2019 is estimated to be 3.6 fWAR which may sound low to some but consider that’s in line with his production over the past few years. Using that 2019 estimate as our starting point, Harper’s 10-year value is 26.7 fWAR over the next decade, which should carry a price tag of $239.8 million.
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