Analysis: In this year's weak Preakness field, the best bet of all might be to pass on the race entirely. But what fun is that?
to win, with the non-contenders earning the remaining 20 percent. In this case, I would narrow the list of contenders to Mage, National Treasure and Red Route One, in that order. Mage is going to be such a popular choice it will be nearly impossible to get value on him in the win pools. If you assign him odds of 8-5 on your personal odds line, you are saying he has an almost 40 percent chance to win, which uses half of your 80 percent allotment for contenders.
There is one scenario worth exploring that could lead to a nice return on investment, and it involves a fast pace that breaks down, allowing a closer to pass tired horses in the stretch. To take advantage of this possibility, you would single Red Route One on top of the two main contenders — Mage and National Treasure — in a trifecta. You might even add Perform as a candidate for show. You could improve your return by not using Mage at all.
The best bet of all, however, might be to pass on the race entirely. I know that’s boring, but in a race with little value, it’s probably the right thing to do.
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