Analysis: The best and worst Super Bowl squares numbers
, making boxes containing those numbers the most lucrative. Since 2015, when the league pushed back the line of scrimmage for extra-point kick attempts, the best square to have for an NFL game has been 0|0, a score combination found at the end of around eight percent of quarters of all games over the past eight seasons, including the playoffs. In an imaginary $1 pool that awards $25 at the end of each quarter , that combination has an expected value of $7.59 per $1 wagered.
Historical trends are a good starting point, but we can get a little more specific using data from the teams in Sunday’s matchup. For example, in games with an over/under total set around 50 or 51 points, similar to, the frequency of the 0|0 box hitting in the first quarter declines from 16 to 12 percent while the 3|3 box almost doubles in frequency, from 4 percent overall to 7 percent. There are some small sample size distortions happening in these calculations, yet it’s still instructive.
This can be broken down further by quarter, giving use even more granular data to model a potential score. Using this data, and simulating the game 10,000 times while recording how many points are expected in each frame, can yield some reasonable expectations for a squares pool. Based on this model, the most likely score after the first quarter is 3-3, which occurs 14 percent of the time, nearly double the typical frequency it occurs in games with an over/under total of 50 or 51.
In fact, a 3-3 tie after the first quarter is expected to be the best square/quarter combination on this Super Bowl Sunday, outperforming all other squares at each interval. One of the teams leading 3-0 after the first quarter is the next best option , followed closely by a scoreless first quarter .
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