Fact Checker: The misleading narrative in Trump’s tumble of trade tweets
By Glenn Kessler Glenn Kessler The Fact Checker Email Bio Follow May 15 at 3:00 AM As we have noted for years, President Trump appears to have little understanding of trade and trade policy, even though it is an animating element of his presidency. As the trade war with China has heated up, the president’s itchy Twitter finger has been busy with a fuselage of false or misleading tweets.
China hurts U.S. farmers “Your all time favorite President got tired of waiting for China to help out and start buying from our FARMERS, the greatest anywhere in the World!” Here Trump tries to take credit for solving a problem he created. His initial round of tariffs led China to stop purchasing soybeans and other agricultural products from the United States, resulting in steep losses for farmers. So Trump then scrambled to arrange a rescue package.
Through December, The Fact Checker estimated that Trump’s tariffs had raised $12 billion, of which $8 billion stemmed from tariffs on Chinese products. But recall that he had authorized $12 billion in payments to help farmers, making it a net loser at the time. “China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a ‘match,’ it would be game over, we win! In any event, China wants a deal!” Trump’s jawboning of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is reportedly one of the reasons the Chinese started to drive a harder bargain; they assumed the U.S. economy was more fragile than they realized.
“Overall, using standard economic methods, we find that the full incidence of the tariff falls on domestic consumers, with a reduction in U.S. real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018,” the economists reported. “We find that the U.S. tariffs were almost completely passed through into U.S. domestic prices, so that the entire incidence of the tariffs fell on domestic consumers and importers up to now, with no impact so far on the prices received by foreign exporters.
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