April's CPI report puts 75 basis point Fed rate hikes on table at next few meetings, Jefferies says

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April's CPI report puts 75 basis point Fed rate hikes on table at next few meetings, Jefferies says
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As investors continue to digest Wednesday's U.S. consumer-price index report, Jefferies is coming out with a relatively bold conclusion.

As investors continue to digest Wednesday’s consumer-price index report for April, Jefferies, one of the more than two dozen primary dealers that trade directly with the New York Fed, is coming out with a relatively bold conclusion.A pair of economists at the firm say April’s CPI “shows no evidence that inflation has really ‘peaked.

What Jefferies is pointing out is that “this inflation is a heck of a lot more persistent than the Fed is discounting,” said John Silvia, founder and chief executive of Dynamic Economic Strategy in Captiva Island, Fla. “That creates a lot of uncertainties in the market, making it much more difficult for everyone.”

Investors can be rattled by rhetoric about the size of Fed rate hikes because it triggers the prospects of more hikes to come, as well as the need to mark down future stock valuations and adjust one’s thinking about the path of inflation, he said via phone Wednesday. Though the annual headline rate dropped to 8.3% from 8.5%, “the only reason y/y inflation slowed was base effects,” Markowska and Simons wrote in a note Wednesday. “There is no sign of a sequential slowdown in underlying price pressures.”

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