This fall’s enrollment of 19,833 is 3,200 fewer kids than five years ago. And Brammer predicts that 10 years from now, the Salt Lake City School District will drop under 17,000 students.
A persistent decline in enrollment is now “districtwide, and that’s concerning,” a consultant warns school board members.
Housing costs, the rapid decline in Utah’s birth rate, the COVID-19 pandemic and increasing competition in education all play a role in why Salt Lake City is shedding kids, said Brammer, of Arizona-based consulting firm Applied Economics. Here areThe school district’s population has grown by 13,000 people since 2010, according to census data cited by Brammer, and 11,500 new housing units were built in its boundaries during that same period.
He tracked students from 27 apartment complexes built downtown between 2010 and 2019. Another 4,000 apartments have been added or planned since then, his report said. There are nine charter schools within the district’s boundaries, including three authorized by the district, and a relatively high number of private schools, at 11, Brammer added.In the five years prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, enrollment had declined substantially in the densely populated neighborhoods west of Interstate 15, according to the report.
The decline will impact Salt Lake City’s elementary and middle schools the most, his report predicts. Only Mountain View Elementary is projected to still have more than 400 students, dropping to 412 from 684 five years ago. Northwest is projected to be the biggest middle school, with 504 kids, down from 923 five years ago.
District leaders also could examine which charter schools are attracting students and how they are doing it, Brammer said.
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