NOAA's hurricane season outlook update today hit on a common theme in most outlooks. Activity will ramp up, as usual in August, but we don't expect a repeat of 2020. Details:
One of the ingredients meteorologists analyze is the water temperature of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
The upper-level pattern this spring in the North Atlantic, with a blocking high pressure near Greenland, helped to increase sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. However, that upper-level pattern has since changed, which has resulted in a decrease in sea surface temperatures.will be at least somewhat warmer than average from September through November.
Assuming atmospheric factors are favorable, warmer waters in the MDR allow tropical waves, the formative engines that can eventually become tropical storms, to get closer to the Caribbean and the U.S. Hurricanes need a rather precise set of ingredients to come together in order to fester, so all of these ingredients will need to be monitored this year.El Niño/La Niña, the periodic warming/cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, can shift weather patterns and influence winds in the Atlantic Basin during hurricane season.NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
Such was the case in 2020 when La Niña intensified to become the strongest in 10 years. This was one factor behind a recordBut while La Niña has fizzled for now, its influence on the atmosphere is likely to remain in place the remainder of hurricane season.A record 11 storms made landfall in the U.S. in 2020, including six hurricanes: Hanna, Isaias, Laura, Sally, Delta and Zeta.
In 1983, there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there as Andrew did in South Florida .
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