The Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for August will be published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesda
y at 01:30 GMT. The data could be critical for the Australian Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia , which will hold its OctoberInflation in Australia peaked in December 2022, when the Monthly CPI showed an 8.4% year-on-year increase. Since then, it has been trending lower, with only a rebound observed in April.
The market does not favor a rate hike at the October 3 meeting, which will be Michele Bullock's first meeting as a Governor. The expectation for a rate hike increases for the November and December meetings. According to Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability , the odds of another rate hike rise to 85% for the first quarter of next year. Interest rate futures indicate that the market expects the cash rate to peak around 4.55% in the first quarter of 2024, higher than the current 4.
If the Consumer Price Index shows inflation not slowing down and, on the contrary, accelerating further above the 2%-3% target range, the Australian Dollar could receive a boost as markets would consider further tightening ahead.
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