Bank Indonesia to stay put till year-end, cut in Q2 2024: Reuters poll
BENGALURU - Bank Indonesia will follow its regional peers and leave its interest rate unchanged on Oct. 19, staying on the sidelines for longer than previously expected, a Reuters poll found.
However, a weakening rupiah - down around 7.5% from a 2023 high of 14,560 per dollar hit on May 4 - was likely to keep the central bank from easing anytime soon. "BI along with most global central banks are just going to try and wait out the volatility we have seen in global markets recently, particularly in the U.S. Treasury markets," said Lavanya Venkateswaran, senior ASEAN economist at OCBC Bank.
While nearly 80% of economists, 23 of 29, predicted BI would keep rates at 5.75% for the year, median forecasts showed the first 25 basis point cut to come in Q2 2024."We only expect BI to cut rates if there has been a clear signal/forward guidance from the Fed that it would begin to ease policy. This may not happen until around Q2 next year or later," wrote Barra Kukuh Mamia, senior economist at Bank Central Asia.
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