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Today’s slate is very small, and there is not as much value on the board, especially in the prop market. However, I’ve found one of the biggest edges on the slate, and it’s with the last pitcher you would expect.
Ryne Nelson will get the ball for the Diamondbacks as they wrap up their series tonight in Wrigley against the Cubs. Nelson comes in with a 5.47 ERA on the season, and it’s easy to see why, as his Baseball Savant page looks like a cooler of cold Coors Light. Although, as you’ll see, he is being undervalued tonight as he’s been able to give the Diamondbacks length despite his struggles this season. Nelson’s pitching outs line is set at just 14.5, meaning he just has to get through five innings.While he has not pitched into the fourth inning in either of his last two starts, the bigger picture points to a much longer performance tonight. Nelson has made 27 starts in his young career, and he has gone at least five innings in 20 of them.
That gives us implied odds of -285 that he will hit the five-inning mark tonight. In addition to the significant line value we have, he’s also in a better matchup that anticipated as the wind in Wrigley will be blowing in heavily. This will help mitigate the Cubs pop by keep the ball in the yard, and keep Nelson in the ball game.
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