Will 2022 bring better policies when it comes to trade?
... [+]In 2021, Joe Biden disappointed Americans who expected him to reverse Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies. Will 2022 bring better policies? To find out, I asked three leading trade experts.
“I expect a modest—very modest—liberalization of the steel and aluminum tariffs, via managed trade [TRQ or tariff-rate quota] agreements with other U.S. allies like Japan,” said Scott Lincicome, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Cato Institute. “These will probably look a lot like the U.S.-E.U. deal, meaning some tariff liberalization for a select amount of imports but below historical levels and nothing anywhere close to free trade.
What about U.S. policy changes toward multilateral agreements? “I don’t ‘expect’ it but wouldn’t be shocked to see the Biden administration re-engage on CPTPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership] after the November mid-terms,” said Lincicome. “Otherwise, maybe a little something at the WTO [World Trade Organization] but nothing groundbreaking.”
Other trade experts are only somewhat more optimistic. Adam S. Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, does not expect the Biden administration to take many steps to remove protectionist trade policies. “They may substitute a more reasonable or useful set of targets for China trade than the so-called ‘Phase One’ agreement,” he said. “They may find other places to substitute quotas for tariffs as they did on steel and aluminum with the European Union.
On the international front, Posen sees some possibilities for liberalization. “There are a few places where I think the Biden administration may encourage trade liberalization indirectly by pursuing other policies,” he said. “The implementation of the international corporate minimum tax should remove some major distortions to trade and some legitimate claims of injustice. Positive steps on decarbonization would remove a justification for future trade barriers.
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