Biden has a tougher road to victory in 2024 than the eventual Republican nominee because Mr. Biden needs to win a supermajority of moderate voters in battleground states, according to a new analysis by a Washington think tank.
“If the 2024 electorate looks anything like what it did in 2020, then the math is simple — Presidentwill need a supermajority of moderate voters to win his reelection campaign,” the report stated. “Anything less may result in a Republican victory.”
Political analyst Lucas Holtz said voters who identified as “very conservative” in the 2020 election made up nearly one-third of then-President Donald Trump’s coalition in each of 10 battleground states. But voters who identified as “very liberal” made up only around 20% of Mr.won because he was able to win moderate voters by a margin of 62% to 36%, and he won at least 60% of moderate voters in every state that he flipped from red to blue, Mr. Holtz said.
The report concluded that self-described conservative voters accounted for 70% of Mr. Trump’s overall coalition, while liberals made up half of Mr.“Because conservatives make up a larger portion of the electorate than liberals do, Republicans don’t have to look far beyond their conservative base to win elections,” the report said. “Democrats, meanwhile, have a much tougher and more diverse path to winning.
The only exception in the past 42 years came in 2012, when President Barack Obama won reelection with 56% of moderate voters. In 2008, Mr. Obama won 60% of moderate voters; President Bill Clinton won 61% of moderates in 1992 and 62% of them in 1996. To date, Mr. Trump, 76, has a significant lead in polls over other announced Republican candidates and over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to enter the race.
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