President Biden’s proposed budget assumes no cuts in Medicare and Social Security for the oldest Americans—and as a result their costs would continue to escalate
on infrastructure, science, semiconductors and veterans benefits. He has taken executive actions to write off student debt and to expand Obamacare benefits.
Because of this relentless growth, at one point members of both parties and independent experts agreed the programs should be reformed, such as by raising the age at which beneficiaries become eligible. President Obama was once open to using a slower-growing inflation index to adjust Social Security benefits. Paul Ryan, the Republican vice-presidential candidate in 2012, wanted Medicare to help the elderly buy insurance negotiated with competing private providers.
Democrats, never that interested in cutting benefits, still aren’t. Mr. Biden has a solution: He has proposed sharplyto extend the life of the Medicare trust fund. This is partly just accounting; federal tax revenue is fungible and it makes no difference whether this tax is earmarked for Medicare or general revenue. That said, it is real money.
That simply highlights a larger fiscal problem. Even with Mr. Biden’s promise to cut deficits by $3 trillion over the coming decade, primarily by raising taxes, the annual deficit remains stuck at around 5% of GDP. As a result, federal debt continues to rise, reaching 110% of GDP in 2033, up from 97% now.
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