President Biden is facing the worst polling environment for an incumbent president one year out from an election since the advent of the polling era in the 1930s. His popularity has plummeted, and even young voters are favoring former President Donald Trump. Panic is warranted for Democrats.
By his unpopularity, he is also experiencing the worst polling of his presidency. This plummet was punctuated by last Thursday’s New York Times/Siena College survey showed former President Donald Trump beating Biden nationally and, perhaps most shockingly, with young voters . Now that the contact high of the most recent election has worn off, Biden is facing a harsh reality.
Precisely how scared Democrats should be about Biden’s standing depends on how his plight compares with those of presidents past. And there’s no sugarcoating it: This might be the worst polling environment for an incumbent president one year out from an election since the advent of the polling era in the 1930s and also the most dire situation facing any Democratic presidential candidate in decades. Panic is entirely warranted. It’s worth noting that the universe of polling around an incumbent president’s reelection chances is an extremely small sample size. When people make confident claims about the relationship between polling data and outcomes with incumbent presidents, they are largely talking about a whopping 12 post-WWII cases
Biden Polling Presidency Trump Democrats Election Worst Environment Incumbent Young Voters
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