If Tory members land the country with its second dud prime minister in a row, their party may well be over
ago the received wisdom in Westminster was that “only Johnson can defeat Johnson.” Now it is that “not even Johnson can defeat Johnson.” The front-runner’s campaign has lurched from one crisis to another—a fiery row with his girlfriend, an ill-thought-out tax break for the rich, a succession of weird interviews—but the race still looks pre-determined. Boris Johnson leads Jeremy Hunt by an apparently unbridgeable margin.
But Mr Johnson’s supposed cross-party appeal is less convincing. The Brexit vote has incinerated his ability to woo metropolitan liberals. Today he couldn’t win a vote to become a dog-catcher in London, let alone mayor. His upper-class style limits his ability to appeal to working-class Brexit supporters, while his fondness for donning the jester’s cap puts off thoughtful moderates. He is despised in Scotland.
Mr Johnson’s third positive is that he is tough: a man who models himself on Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher rather than establishment trimmers and toadies. But this supposed toughness is incompatible with his longing for approval and fear of opprobrium. His habit of making opposite promises to different factions in the party owes less to strategic cunning than to a craven desire to be liked. His habit of disappearing into blue funks is the product of a thin skin.
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