U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's new Brexit deal would have a worse impact on the British economy than the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by his predecessor Theresa May, according to a recent independent study and past government figures.
Javid told reporters at the IMF Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C., on Thursday that he had no intention of publishing revised figures on the impact of Johnson's deal., the government's long-term economic analysis published in November 2018 identifies a potential scenario akin to Johnson's as costing the U.K. 6.7% of its GDP, or £130 billion in growth by 2034. This amounts to people on average being £2,250 per year poorer 15 years from now.
found that Johnson's proposed deal would reduce per capita GDP by 6.4%, greater than the 4.9% estimated under Theresa May's deal but not as damaging as the 8.1% lost if the U.K. was to leave without a deal to trade on WTO terms. Johnson's proposal is projected to reduce U.K. GDP per capita over 10 years by between 2.3% and 7% ranging from best to worst case scenario, compared to remaining in the EU. The range of loss arising from May's deal was estimated at between 1.9% to 5.5%, while leaving without a deal would have shaved GDP by between 3.5% and 8.7% over the same period.
The revised deal would see Northern Ireland become part of the U.K. customs territory rather than the EU customs area, but will still have to abide by certain EU rules, including on agricultural and goods. The main source of the economic variation between May's deal and Johnson's, the researchers suggested, was that Great Britain will have no customs union with the EU, no "level playing field" arrangements and a more limited, if any, free trade agreement.
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