Economic Minister Paulo Guedes is making promises he probably cannot keep.
, making that 25 years total. If he serves out his term, he will be in jail or under house arrest until he is 99 years old. Bolsonaro is close to fulfilling a campaign promise: He told his supporters that Lula would rot in prison.
Paulo Guedes, Brazil’s economy minister. Going up! Brazil’s stock market is beating the emerging market index on hopes for some serious economic reforms and an overhaul of Brazil’s government pension system. Photographer: Andre Coelho/Bloomberg photo credit: © 2019 Bloomberg Finance LPThe Brazilian currency has gained 4% against the dollar. Long-term interest rates are near historic lows. The market likes what it’s hearing from the Bolsonaro administration.
Guedes is promising the market the moon. He is unlikely to deliver everything. But on some issues, like pension reform, even if the market gets an increase in retirement age that will be a market positive. Public sector workers can retire after 30 years on the job, meaning some are retiring from teaching jobs, for instance, in their early 50s.
“The recent election of new, pro-business leaders in the Senate and in the Lower House of Congress are important steps for this government to obtain the majorities necessary to move its reform agenda forward,” says Axel Christensen, chief investment strategist for Latin America and Iberia at BlackRock. “It’s not going to be an easy task and the timeframe in which Congress moves on the issues could disappoint investors focused on the short term.
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