Images of the protests in Brazil were disconcertingly similar to the invasion of America’s Capitol two years before. For investors, however, the two countries carry very different financial risks: rob_cyran
Security forces operate as supporters of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro demonstrate against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in Planalto Palace, in Brasilia, Brazil, January 8, 2023.Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace on Sunday made for uncomfortable viewing in the United States. They were disconcertingly similar to the invasion of America’s Capitol by followers of Donald Trump two years before.
Brazil’s political history is also unfortunately dramatic, with multiple coups in the past century. Its most recent democracy, established in 1985, remains vulnerable. Over the past 10 years, Brazil is among the worst countries inautocracy, according to the Varieties of Democracy, a project which tracks commitment to democratic principles.
, below the global average, where 100 reflects a society nearly free of malfeasance. The United States scores substantially better at 67, but still below other developed nations. Both countries’ scores have slipped over the past decade.corruption with poor economic and social results. Rent-seeking proliferates and government spending becomes less effective.
America’s more than 200 years commitment to democracy, even if imperfect, inspires both markets and citizens to assume its foundations are stronger than Brazil’s. Hopefully, that’s correct. But if investors ever decide to demand a risk premium, it has a long way to fall.Brazilian supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the country’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace on Jan. 8.
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