China is at risk of a self-inflicted recession. A survey shows that nearly 1/3 of its population is under some sort of lockdown, with shops shut and factories struggling. More policy easing looks unavoidable, but so does capital flight, says ywchen1
in Shanghai, where asymptomatic cases are running at around 25,000 a day despite two weeks of rigorous lockdown, is prompting other regions to impose draconian measures pre-emptively. At least 373 million people in cities contributing to 40% of China’s GDP have been affected, a Nomura survey showed. Key indicators are already reflecting the shock.
China contained the initial outbreak in 2020 quickly and resumed production, allowing its manufacturing sector to tap export markets to revive growth after a single quarter of contraction. Omicron is far more infectious, yet Beijing aims to reproduce that result. Officials appear to be realising that won’t be easy.
- Yields on China's 10-year government bonds fell below U.S. Treasury yields for the first time in 12 years on April 11, Reuters reported. - Chinese banks extended 3.1 trillion yuan in new yuan loans in March, up sharply from February and exceeding analyst expectations, data released by the People's Bank of China on April 11 showed.Editing by Pete Sweeney and Katrina HamlinOpinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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