Last week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde replied with “a decisive maybe” when asked whether her institution would keep the deposit rate at a record high of 3.75%, or hike again in September. Monday’s first estimate of consumer price data for July reinforces the case for a pause on rising rates, but for Lagarde the picture is frustratingly unclear.
of consumer price data for July reinforces the case for a pause on rising rates, but for Lagarde the picture is frustratingly unclear.
Sure, headline inflation fell from 5.5% in June to 5.3% in July but the core measure, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, stayed put at 5.5% and is higher than in May. Worse still, services prices rose at a new record pace of 5.6%. Lagarde’s hardline colleagues will point out that’s too fast to bring inflation back to the ECB’s 2% target. Markets aren’t sure, ascribing a 70% chance to a pause in September, according to derivatives pricing data collected by Refinitiv.
The ECB has time. Revisions to the July numbers will follow and policymakers will get inflation data for August before they meet on September 14. With the euro zone economy weakening – Monday’s 0.6% annualised in second-quarter GDP was driven by one-off factors - Frankfurt rate-setters will be glad they are on holiday for the next month or so.
México Últimas Noticias, México Titulares
Similar News:También puedes leer noticias similares a ésta que hemos recopilado de otras fuentes de noticias.
Charting the Global Economy: Fed, ECB Press on With Rate HikesThe Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan headlined a pivotal week for central banks, with US and European policymakers opting for additional interest-rate hikes.
Leer más »
ECB’s Lagarde: Latest GDP data from France, Germany and Spain support our scenarioEuropean Central Bank President Christine Lagarde termed the latest economic output numbers from France, Germany and Spain as “quite encouraging” whil
Leer más »
Breakingviews - The BRICS are better off disbanding than expandingThe BRICS are an acronym searching for a geopolitical role. When Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa get together for their annual summit in Johannesburg next month, a top issue for discussion will be whether to expand the club. Emerging economies might be better off if it disbands.
Leer más »
Breakingviews - New BT boss’s biggest test is investor relationsBT’s board faced the challenge of hiring a new CEO willing to implement a turnaround strategy decided by their predecessor. It has solved that problem by appointing one of its own members, Allison Kirkby, to the post vacated by outgoing Philip Jansen. Aged 56, she brings serious credentials to the job, after three years at the helm of Telia Company . Shares in the Swedish telco sank 4% on news of her departure, suggesting Telia’s loss is a gain for BT.
Leer más »
EUR/USD will not receive any momentum any longer if the ECB follows the Fed – CommerzbankThe European central bankers are copying the behavior of their colleagues in the US. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the implications for the EUR/US
Leer más »
Breakingviews - Walmart focuses India’s retail valuation debateWalmart is bumping up its stake in Flipkart, India’s e-commerce giant, at a handsome valuation. The U.S. retailer is buying shares from Tiger Global for $1.4 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The purchase, which probably pushes the parent’s ownership level to around 80%, values the company at $35 billion. It’s a good deal for the seller as investors assess India’s hottest retail businesses.
Leer más »