Breakingviews - India stands between world and food riots

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Breakingviews - India stands between world and food riots
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India's ban on wheat exports will exacerbate global food security woes and shift focus onto the country’s critical rice exports, says ugalani

Workers remove dust from wheat at a wholesale grain market in Chandigarh, India April 17, 2017. REUTERS/Ajay Verma - RC1E6E7C8DF0MUMBAI, May 16 - India’s pledge to feed to the world still holds more than a grain of truth. After global wheat supplies were disrupted by the war in Ukraine, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India was ready to step up its trade. But a heatwaveis singeing fields and threatening to drive domestic production of wheat down to levels last seen in 2017.

An export ban on wheat announced on Saturday eases pressure on India’s average retail wheat flour prices that are at a 12-year high and protects consumers.That will come at the expense of farmers, whose incomes have already been squeezed hard in recent years, and who will now need to sell their crop for lower prices to the government.

It raises the political heat on food security worldwide. Before the ban, India had been the only major supplier in global markets, due to worsening water scarcity in Brazil, the United States and Europe. Economists at Citi calculate India might still have some spare wheat to send overseas. If so, its neighbours including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which is in the midst of an economic and political crisisThe wheat shortfall shifts the world’s food focus onto rice, a common substitute for wheat.

The All Rice Price Index, compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, remained below levels a year earlier as of April, though it is creeping up. Thanks to controversial subsidies assuring farmers a minimum selling price, India is likely to have enough grains to feed itself; a healthy monsoon season will be critical to global supplies. For now, India’s food stocks still spare political leaders elsewhere from even worse problems.

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