How is US tight oil performing in this febrile environment?
- that is, drilling fewer wells. Parent/child interactions become almost unavoidable as plays mature and we’ve seen this in every other unconventional play.
But aren’t the Majors cranking up tight oil investment? They are, and they might crank up even more. ExxonMobil and Chevron are the two biggest players in the Permian, holding millions of prize acres laden with low breakeven inventory.Each has high ambitions, and both are on target – ExxonMobil to lift production to 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024, Chevron to 0.9 million boe/d in 2023.
If the independents overrun on costs in third quarter earnings, they’ll cut more rigs at the end of the year and tight oil growth will slow more in 2020. We doubt that the brief rally in oil price after the Saudi attack will change tight oil investment much, if at all. Investors are calling the shots. For some management teams, it’s proving tough to change the ‘grow at all costs’ mindset.
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