With snow levels near or a little above sea level Wednesday, we could see a mixed bag of rain, sleet and snow.
There will be a chance of freezing rain, too — at least for a brief time — if warmer air coming in later on Wednesday and into Thursday morning does not arrive quickly enough.
The sort of setup is called “overrunning,” where warmer, moist air with liquid precipitation occurs in an air mass where below-freezing air is still in place near and at the surface. We’ll just have to see how this midweek episode evolves. If there are impacts from wintry weather on Tuesday night through Thursday morning, it looks like it could come to an abrupt end Thursday, with the eventual victory of the warmer air moving in from the southwest. This would mean a changeover to just rain for lowland locations on Thursday, with rain continuing at times all the way into Christmas weekend.
Given the general look right now of longer-range forecast models, a Christmas weekend with snow actually falling in the lowlands is looking less and less like a possibility, with the chances of a “White Christmas” hinging on heavy snow around midweek, which is also looking somewhat unlikely, and that snow being able to hang around in the rain all the way to Dec. 25. This is possible, but not likely.
Still, we have a long way to go before we know exactly what will happen for sure in the long range with timing and amounts of snow, but we need to focus more in the short-term, with the prospects for some minor accumulations of snow from late Saturday and Sunday into early next week for many locations, especially north of Seattle and above a few hundred feet elevation.
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