The chance that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal is the high...
LONDON - The chance that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal is the highest since October 2017, economists polled by Reuters say, as arch-Brexiteer Boris Johnson looks set to take over as prime minister next week.
“The likelihood of a Boris Johnson premiership and the rhetoric which has surfaced during the campaign suggests that this outcome is more likely than we previously believed,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank. But in second place this month was the more extreme option of leaving without a deal and trading under World Trade Organization rules.
Those forecasts were either left unchanged or lowered, so what has shifted are expectations about what the Bank of England will do with interest rates. “But the increasing uncertainty surrounding Brexit suggests policy tightening is equally unlikely this year.” “We don’t necessarily share the view that the UK economy will see a substantial pick-up in growth even in a smooth Brexit,” RBC economists Peter Schaffrik and Cathal Kennedy said in a note to clients.
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