China could reopen in March, but zero-Covid has shaken confidence in supply chains, economist says

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China could reopen in March, but zero-Covid has shaken confidence in supply chains, economist says
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In the short term, supply chains will be largely unaffected since factories are still operating, a former advisor to the People's Bank of China said.

While Chinese authorities could gradually unwind restrictions in March, zero-Covid policies are starting to hurt global confidence in the country's industrial supply chains, said Li Daokui, Mansfield Freeman professor of economics at China's Tsinghua University.

In the short term, supply chains will be largely unaffected since factories are still operating even if consumption is lower due to lockdowns, Li, a former advisor to the People's Bank of China, said in an extended interview with CNBC's ""However, the long run impact might be already shaped, that is, the international economic community are thinking twice about the stability of supply chains in China," he said.

"People used to think that China is the most solid, the most secure, most stable supply source. Now they are thinking to rebuild their own supply backup chains in their own countries or regions. So that is the situation now."over China's zero-Covid policy and prolonged lockdowns. There were also student protests at Li's institution, Beijing's elite Tsinghua University.

"Well, I do believe the authorities are thinking about this ... and my estimate is that by late March, [at] the latest, the policy will have very good substantial change ... that is to concentrate on protecting the elderly, meanwhile, opening up for the rest of the population," Li said. While Beijing could consider importing and using Western mRNA vaccines — which have a higher efficacy rate — Li said Chinese authorities are more likely to use other controls such as ringfencing lockdowns.

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