The coronavirus likely halved China's economic growth in the current quarte...
- The coronavirus likely halved China’s economic growth in the current quarter compared with the previous three months, more severe than thought just three weeks ago and triggering expectations for earlier interest rate cuts, a Reuters poll found.
The March 3-5 poll of more than 40 economists, based both in and outside mainland China, forecast growth to fall to a median of 3.5% this quarter from 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, a full percentage point lower than predicted in a Feb. 14 poll.Under a worst-case scenario, the median forecast for Q1 was 2.4%, compared with 3.5% in the previous poll - essentially meaning the worst-case view from three weeks ago is now the central scenario for private sector economists.
“If you’re in a city which has been basically closed down or put virtual house arrest, you’re not going to go out to the streets, you can’t go to the cinema, the restaurants...with all those sorts of things, economic activity will be substantially negatively affected.”For the year, growth was expected to slow to 5.4%, which if realized would be the slowest since records began in 1992. Under a worst-case scenario, this was 5.0%.
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