A surge in African swine fever infections in China is set to reduce hog output later this year, farm managers and analysts said this week, pushing up prices in the world's top pork consumer as demand recovers.
"Data from swine fever virus testing companies show that the number of positive detections exploded after the new year holiday. The order of magnitude in a single month has reached the level of the whole year of 2022," said analysts at Huachuang Securities in a report on Monday.
The impact of the outbreaks depends on how early they are detected and how they are managed, said the pig company manager. Large losses last year encouraged many farmers to downsize herds in the winter, which has pushed up slaughter volumes. The disease outbreaks, as well as the prior herd reductions, will lead to fewer hogs reaching the market when demand improves in the second half of the year, said the Huachuang report.
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