As inflation-adjusted rates soared this year to the highest since the financial crisis, bullion has barely blinked.
Real yields — measured by the 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, — jumped again on Thursday to the highest since 2009, while spot gold nudged down a mere 0.5% the same day. The last time real rates were this high, gold was about half the price.
There are various different models or calculations to assess the fair value of gold — many analysts create their own — but at their essence, most reflect the basic principles of where bullion is trading compared with real US bond yields and the dollar. Normally money managers would sell the haven metal as the dollar strengthens and the interest paid by other safe assets like bonds and cash rises.
The “premium” has endured for over a year, as a record gold-buying binge by central banks helped the metal withstand monetary policy tightening globally. That could allow it to set a record if yields or the dollar drop again, according to Macquarie’s Marcus Garvey, who sees prices rising to $2,100 an ounce next year as the US economy slows.
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