U.S. petroleum inventories are not rebuilding – despite record releases from the government’s strategic reserve and a slowdown in the economy which is weighing on fuel consumption by manufacturers and freight firms.
In the short term, pressure on inventories is bullish for oil prices. In the medium term, however, it implies a deeper and longer cyclical downturn will be needed later in 2022 and early 2023 to rebalance the market.
In the most recent week, petroleum inventories depleted by 9 million barrels, with drawdowns in strategic crude reserves , commercial crude , gasoline and distillate fuel oil , partially offset by builds in propane and other oils . But stocks have risen by less than 1 million barrels so far this quarter, one of the smallest increases in the last 40 years, pointing to a persistent shortage, which is unsustainable.
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