Each person infected with coronavirus is passing the disease on to between two a...
People wear face masks as they select products in a supermarket in Beijing as China is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, January 25, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Whether the outbreak will continue to spread at this rate depends on the effectiveness of control measures, the scientists who conducted the studies said. But to be able to contain the epidemic and turn the tide of infections, control measures would have to halt transmission in at least 60% of cases.
“It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious disease specialist at Imperial College London who co-led one of the studies. A second study by researchers at Britain’s Lancaster University also calculated the contagion rate at 2.5 new people on average being infected by each person already infected.
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