A month ago infection rates were falling - how concerned should we be about the change in direction?
But there is also an acknowledgement our approach and attitude to Covid needs to change too.But local councillor and emergency doctor Andy Virr says the Boardmasters festival was held in the knowledge this could happen and he is reassured the cases are not translating into serious illness.But this, of course, does not mean we should abandon all caution.
Prof Mike Tildesley, an infectious disease modeller at the University of Warwick, says September will be the crucial moment, when schools are back and people return to work."In September, normal behaviour and contact levels return." And if the signs from Scotland are right - the holiday season has already ended and cases are rising sharply - there could be quite a jump."So if they go up across the board from here and that translates to a rise in hospital cases, there could be problems."
But there are no guarantees that will happen - especially if we are truly close to an equilibrium whereby the levels of immunity in the population can keep the virus at bay."And it will probably be the end of September before we can say with any certainty."
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