The economy increasingly looks like it is hurtling toward a recession.
to the lowest level since May 2020, when the economy was staggering from the onset of the pandemic and lockdowns. The Commerce Department’s report on construction spending showed a 0.1 percent drop, the first decline in 8 months.r is intended to show what recent data imply for current economic growth. It does not attempt to forecast growth based on unreleased data.
Real consumer spending, for example, grew at just a 1.8 percent rate in the first quarter, according toreleased by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. That was down from the initial estimate of 3.1 percent growth. Economists polled by Econoday had estimates that ranged from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent, with a median prediction of 3.1 percent. So the estimates were not even in the ballpark of reality.
The Commerce Department’s Personal Consumption Expenditure data released for the first quarter and the month of Maythat consumer spending has been more or less flat since January. Inflation-adjusted household earnings have fallen, with wage gains swamped by rising prices. PCE inflation, the Fed’s favored measure of price changes, remained at 6.3 percent in May, defying predictions that it would come down as the Fed imposed the biggest rate hike in this century.
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