Floods are more difficult to attribute to climate change than other extreme events, such as the recent heatwave in the Pacific north-west. Many factors play a role
THE LOW-PRESSURE region began forming on July 11th over the area where Germany meets Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Hundreds of kilometres wide and puffed up by heat—in the Netherlands, it had been the hottest June since 1901—it sucked in moisture from lakes and wet soil all across central Europe. Then it sat there for days, disgorging colossal quantities of rain. Some regions got over 90mm of precipitation on July 13th and a further 70mm or more the next day.
Horst Seehofer, Germany’s interior minister, immediately linked the disaster to greenhouse-gas-driven climate change: “Any sensible person must get the fact that freak weather of this density and frequency is not a normal phenomenon in this part of the world.” A formal attribution along those lines may not be soon forthcoming. Floods are more difficult to attribute to climate change than other extreme events, such as the recentin the Pacific north-west.
In Germany, where the campaign for a national election on September 26th is in full swing, the floods are already affecting politics. Armin Laschet, the Christian Democratic party’s candidate for the chancellorship and the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, called for beefing up efforts to fight climate change. Mr Laschet has been attacked for his unwillingness to commit to climate policies as demanding as those put forward by other parties.
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