Demographic changes and an unpopular president have remade Orange County’s electoral map. Is the transformation permanent?
says people don’t switch political affiliations, even when they disagree with their party on key issues. It’s one of the inexorable truths of American partisanship.
The mortification of the GOP on its home turf came due to two primary factors: an influx of young and Latino voters who have diluted the power of the white conservatives who long defined the county, and Recently, I spent time in Rouda’s district—which he gleefully touts as the “most beautiful congressional district in the country”—and Orange County’s three other congressional districts. On the day I shadowed Rouda, he was dressed almost as if we were walking in a hallway inside the Capitol—navy blue suit and leather shoes, the lack of necktie the only concession to the balmy weather.
But there is another salient truth about that might prove just as consequential in 2020: Voters who left the Republican party in the last cycle didn’t register as Democrats; they overwhelmingly became independents. In short, they were up for grabs in 2018 and they’re still up for grabs a year later. “Up until 1997, you had a Republican party that believed in environmental stewardship, believed in the right of everyone to vote, believed in reducing deficits,” Rouda said. “And that’s certainly not the case now. At best, all of those issues are on the backburner if not off the stovetop altogether.”“I mean, does anybody really think Ronald Reagan could get elected [today]?” he said.
Rouda moved to Orange County from Ohio in 2007, managing his real estate law practice from one of the priciest zip codes in all of California. Still, he continued donating to Republican candidates even after leaving the GOP. In 2016, he contributed $1,000 to then-Ohio Governor John Kasich’s presidential campaign, citing his friendship with Kasich and his desire to see Trump defeated in the GOP primary. When Kasich inevitably dropped out, Rouda was faced with a choice between Trump and Clinton.
In the 12 years since he ran the local Democratic party, the demographics in Orange County have undergone sweeping changes. Latino voters make up 21 percent of Orange County’s electorate, upsince 2016 as more have gained American citizenship. Hispanic voter turnout sharply increased, in what was likely a response to Trump’s hardline immigration rhetoric. Clinton’s 2016 victory here shocked Republicans—and just two years later, the county’s GOP lawmakers were wiped out completely.
While the Latino boom in Orange County has helped Democrats, the surge of Asian-Americans has been less conclusive. While Asian-American share of the electorate has ballooned to 16 percent, registration numbers show that 29 percent are Republicans and 30 percent are Democrats. Forty-one percent are registered with neither party.
the president when Air Force One landed at Los Angeles International Airport last March, his first official visit to California.Kim, too, supports the president’s policies, telling me that Trump deserves credit for the strength of the U.S. economy. She has praised him for slashing federal regulations and signing a sweeping tax-overhaul bill into law—one that many California Republicans actually opposed in part because it capped the state and local tax deduction at $10,000.
“We care about clean air, clean water, clean beaches. Because we live here. Because we see the impact of climate change,” Levin said, pointing to the beach 50 feet behind him as we sat on a picnic table. “Because we understand what it’s like when you don’t have those strict air quality requirements because we grew up here at a time when we had far worse emission standards.”
The GOP’s argument to Rouda’s constituents is simple: You were swindled. The NRCC has already dinged him for supporting an impeachment inquiry into the president, and they’ve referred to Rouda as a “Socialist Democrat.” Moreover, Republicans say Rouda’s victory in 2018 was a fluke because Rohrabacher, notoriously apologetic for the Putin regime, was an unpopular and flawed incumbent. Translation: A level-headed Republican would fare better.The “socialist” moniker won’t go away any time soon.
“We’re ballooning our deficit and our debt, which I care very deeply about—not all Democrats do. I do,” he said. “I’m not a proponent of modern monetary theory. I am a proponent of fiscal responsibility and investment, and understanding the difference between an investment and a cost.” Republicans also see a prime pickup opportunity in Cisneros’ district, which will feature a rematch of his 2018 contest against Kim. She is already seeking to tie Cisneros to Ocasio-Cortez, noting that he is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.“He said he would try to be a moderate person, yet he goes on to join the Progressive Caucus, whose agenda and policies are leaning further and further to the left,” Kim said in an interview.
While she supports the president, she tipped her hat to the steep decline in GOP registration by acknowledging that Trump’s personal behavior often turns voters off.
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