The U.S. dollar, which has dominated currency markets since early 2018, will con...
BENGALURU - The U.S. dollar, which has dominated currency markets since early 2018, will continue to be a force to reckon with for at least the remainder of this year, according to a majority of currency strategists in a Reuters poll.
But analysts since the beginning of the year have repeatedly trimmed how much other major currencies will gain in 12 months, reflecting weakness in economies outside of the United States. They now see the euro climbing 3.5% and Japan’s yen about 2% against the dollar in the coming year. “Where we differ from the rather negative consensus view is that even if the Fed delivers those rate cuts, it still leaves the dollar as one of the highest-yielding G10 currencies and what we think the consensus misses is the role of outright yield,” said Adam Cole, head of FX strategy at RBC.
That includes over 50% of strategists who predict the dollar’s reign to continue for more than a year. “The dollar is rolling over a little bit now because markets are pricing in more aggressive rate cuts,” said Gavin Friend, senior market strategist at NAB. “With every successive year and more information we get about how the economy is responding - how high can the euro go keeps getting ratcheted down every single time,” said James Orlando, senior economist at TD Securities.
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