How bad has it been for the U.S. stock market in the first three months of 2020? In a word, historic:
In a word, historic, but returns are almost certain to improve over the longer term despite the current pain, if history is any guide.
The S&P 500 hasn’t been down in those three months successively since 2008, and a January-to-March stretch of losses has only occurred seven other times in the history of the 63-year-old stock index. After the Dow has produced a quarter as ugly as this one, the blue-chip index returns 11.88% and 8.49% in the following two quarters, according to Dow Jones Market Data. In such a year, the Dow returns 22.75% on average. There are similar positive trends for the other two main benchmarks.
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